I have been obsessed with predicting the behavior of other drivers on the road. Call it a hobby when I am bored driving. It’s actually a lot of fun and I have become fairly good with determining what other drivers will do next based on their current behavior and past behavior of other drivers.
These tips will help you predict the future. It’s based in science and human psychology. You won’t see a 100% increase in accuracy, but even if you can squeeze out a 10% increase over your competition you will outperform them over time. Because many small wins add up to a big win in the long run.
Factors that will decrease your accuracy in predictions:
Cognitive biasness
Lack of knowledge in the field
Using your “GUT” when you lack experience
Jumping to conclusions
Making assumptions
Thinking in absolutes (binary thinking)
Factors that improve accuracy:
Using your “GUT: when you have good experience
Deliberate practice, Masterful coaching, and 10,000 hours
Awareness of your own biases
A healthy sense of humility
Thinking in percentages of probability
Common problems:
Using past behavior to predict future performance in the stock market
Thinking something is “in the bag” like the 2016 Presidential election
Thinking you know more than you do or better than you are
Thinking I’ve seen this a thousand times so it will happen again
Confusing correlation with causation
Superstition – something happens once or twice and you associate it with the cause
Superforecasting: How to Upgrade Your Company’s Judgment
by Paul J. H. Schoemaker and Philip E. Tetlock
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don’t
by Nate Silver
Superbowl Stock Market Indicator: